Tsunami disaster to boost 2011 worldwide semiconductor revenue

April 6, 2011 — The March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and the ensuing power outages and transport disruptions, prove to be bolstering semiconductor markets in 2011. IHS iSuppli reports that supply disruptions related to the Japan earthquake and tsunami will contribute to higher than previously expected global semiconductor revenue in 2011, as shortages ramp up pricing for key memory devices.

The latest IHS iSuppli semiconductor forecast for 2011, issued on March 30, calls for annual semiconductor revenue growth of 7.0% to $325.2 billion — up from the 5.8% expansion predicted in the previous outlook from early February. 

  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
New Forecast $76,063.0 $78,026.0 $84,506.0 $86,622.0
Old Forecast $74,653.6 $77,184.5 $83,307.6 $84,931.8
Click to Enlarge
Figure. Revised and previous quarterly 2011 semiconductor forecasts (Millions of U.S. Dollars). SOURCE: IHS iSuppli April 2011.

The biggest factor contributing to the increased semiconductor forecast is a boost in the revenue outlook for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) devices. The new IHS iSuppli forecast increases the 2011 DRAM revenue forecast by 6.6 percentage points, and now anticipates this area will experience only a 4% decline for the year, compared to an expected decrease of 10.6% growth previously. The increase in revenue in this area is entirely driven by an increase in average selling prices during the first quarter, partly because of supply disruptions caused by the earthquake.

Neither of Japan’s DRAM fabs was damaged in the quake. However, a chip assembly plant in Akita owned by Elpida Memory suffered a disruption in production, causing the reduction in shipments. Upward price pressure is expected to ease for DRAM in the second half of the year.

However, DRAM pricing could face further increases later this year if wafer shortage issues worsen. Japan is the world’s leading producer of silicon wafers, the key raw material used to make semiconductors, accounting for 60% of global supply. Top wafer supplier Shin-Etsu continues to suffer production outages for its 300 mm wafer manufacturing. The company’s Kamisu and Nishigo plants are down, which together account for about 20% of global wafer production.

"Supply of 300mm raw wafers could be a problem for memory makers," said Mike Howard, principal analyst for DRAM and memory at IHS. "If these supply problems persist, manufacturing efficiency will be impacted when raw wafer inventory is depleted. When the number of wafers in the manufacturing supply chain declines to less than 50 percent of typical levels, then DRAM output will be impacted. This could happen starting in October, resulting in further price increases for DRAM." 

Learn more at www.isuppli.com/Semiconductor-Value-Chain/News/Pages/Impact-of-Japan-Disaster-Boosts-Worldwide-Semiconductor-Revenue-in-2011.aspx

POST A COMMENT

Easily post a comment below using your Linkedin, Twitter, Google or Facebook account. Comments won't automatically be posted to your social media accounts unless you select to share.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

LIVE NEWS FEED

NEW PRODUCTS

OEM Group expands P5000 capabilities to compound semiconductor substrates
05/25/2017OEM Group has launched the P5000:CS automated single wafer cluster tool for the compound semiconductor market. ...
3D-Micromac launches the second generation of its high-performance microcell OTF laser systems
04/17/2017The high-performance production solution for Laser Contact Opening (LCO) of PERC solar cells achieves a th...
ULVAC launches NA-1500 dry etching system for 600mm advanced packaging systems
03/24/2017ULVAC, Inc. is pleased to announce the NA-1500 dry etching system for 600mm advanced packaging substrates, providing for u...