June 20, 2011 — The global chemical mechanical polishing and planarization (CMP) consumables market recovered from the 2008-2009 recession with a vengeance, 2 years ahead of schedule. 2010 CMP revenues were up 37% over 2009, returning to 2007 levels, according to Techcet Group’s new report, "CMP Consumables 2011 Critical Materials Report." The CMP combined pad and slurry market this year is forecast to be $1.65 billion, rising through 2016 to $1.96 billion, a CAGR of 4.4%.
Tungsten (W) and ILD slurry revenues will face market erosion from copper and STI, indicative both of the growing manufacturing volumes of leading-edge copper devices and of the higher average selling prices (ASP) of these advanced slurries. This makes sense, as CMP consumable suppliers that cater to this advanced, leading-edge segment did not suffer revenue or volume declines in the 2008-2009 recession.
Techcet Group believes that these market figures hint at unabated process development for next-generation chips. The recession-caused slack in demand allowed fabs to evaluate a range of new CMP products, creating several "magic triangles:" slurry, pad and pad conditioner combinations that generate good dishing and defect results. At 45nm and below, these process specifications are more dificult to meet.
15 slurry suppliers (a record) established sustainable revenue streams in at least one CMP process segment. Cabot Microelectronics remains the biggest player with approximately 40% market share overall. Six other slurry suppliers have established shares ranging from 5% to 11%. Dow’s dominance in CMP pads is under nascent threat from Cabot Microelectronics and 3 other suppliers, each with 3-7% share, although Dow still holds a commanding 80-85% lead.
"CMP Consumables 2011 Critical Materials Report" includes a market breakdown for all CMP-related consumables and over 100 suppliers. It also contains an analysis of the latest International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) updates and its implications for CMP processes and supply chains at 32nm, 22nm, and beyond.
Additional information from "CMP Consumables 2011 Critical Materials Report" will be presented by Dr. Michael A. Fury at the NCCAVS CMPUG meeting during SEMICON West in San Francisco, July 13, 10:30am-12:30pm at TechXPOT, Moscone South.
Techcet Group LLC specializes in technical trend analysis and market analysis for the semiconductor, silicon, PV, and related electronics industries. For additional information about these reports, visit www.techcet.com.