Semconductor upswing in 2012 as excesses dwindle

September 1, 2011 — Market research firm Semico predicts that the semiconductor manufacturing industry is undergoing a three-quarter (Q3 2011-Q1 2012) downturn, with foundries trimming capital expenditures and OEMs holding excess inventory.

Semico’s IPI contiues to indicate a weak 2011 second half, and June showed poor performance. Tablets, PCs, and smartphones are all riding on excess product at the moment, with softer-than-expected sales. These products, especially tablets, are still seeing aggressive product design and introduction cycles. However, Intel might be reconsidering its 22nm roadmap as PC sales soften.

General economic indicators point to slow growth in 2011, Semico notes. Recent global economic woes and natural disasters are contributing to a cautious outlook. Semico’s 2011 semiconductor revenue forecast shows revenues declining 1.96% over 2010. After Q1 2012, some of the excess product in the supply chain will be used up, leading to growth and increased utilization.

The Semico IPI report is published monthly and includes the IPI as well an analysis of the data.  Semico’s worldwide semiconductor forecast is published in the IPI report once each quarter. The IPI indicated a 2011 slowdown in 2010.

Semico is a semiconductor marketing & consulting research company. For more information, contact Susan Cadel, 607-368-7600, susanc@semico.com.

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