Survey: Chip execs sour on 2012 industry growth

December 20, 2011 – Semiconductor execs are much less confident about the coming year’s business prospects than they were leading into 2011, according to KPMG’s annual survey.

The survey of 155 primarily senior-level semiconductor industry executives at device, foundry, and fabless manufacturers (half of which have =$1B in annual sales) was conducted in October-November. The full report won’t be available the first week of 2011, according to a KPMG spokesperson, but there are some preliminary findings:

Growth expectations are low. Only 41% expect revenue to grow more than 5% in 2012, way below the 78% polled at the end of 2010 and 89% in 2009. Only 30% expect profit growth to exceed 5%, down from 37% last year. And just 19% see hiring exceeding 5% in 2012, down from 29% in 2010 and nearly at 2008’s pessimism (17%).

Not much for suppliers, either. Only 27% of survey respondents expect more than a 5% industrywide capital spending increase, vs. 46% in 2010. Only 3% are expecting more than 5% R&D spending (vs. 47% in 2010).

New slogan: "At least it’s not 2009!" An index measuring "Semiconductor Business Confidence" slipped to 46, down from 60 in 2010 and 61 in 2009. That’s still better than the score of 36 in 2008, though, which suggests execs don’t anticipate a repeat of the 2009 downturn.

Despite the general malaise, the semi execs polled do think the US is strengthening its position in the global semiconductor ecosystem. Fifty percent see the US as an important market for revenue growth, a number that has continued to climb (China is first at 60%, Japan is third at 37%). Three years ago the US was seen as fourth behind China (79%), Taiwan (44%), and Japan (40%). China’s still clearly seen as a crucial growth market for semiconductors, though its numbers might have slipped a bit due to government tightening of lending, noted Ron Steger, partner in charge of KPMG’s Global Semiconductor Practice.

The survey also shows, not surprisingly, the rising importance of wireless devices — semiconductor suppliers see it as their top driver of 2012 revenue growth, followed by computing and consumer products. Promise is also seen in emerging markets for alternative/renewable energy (solar, thermal, battery technologies) and medical applications.

POST A COMMENT

Easily post a comment below using your Linkedin, Twitter, Google or Facebook account. Comments won't automatically be posted to your social media accounts unless you select to share.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

LIVE NEWS FEED

NEW PRODUCTS

New AFM with high definition electrical measurement capabilities
04/16/2015The Nano-Observer, designed by Concept Scientific Instruments, is ideal for current and future AFM research applications....
Thin wafer processing temporary bonding adhesive film for 3D wafer integration
03/24/2015 AI Technology, Inc (AIT) is the first known provider of a film format high temperature temporary bonding adhesive for thi...
Dramatic results achieved in cleaving glass using ultra-short pulsed lasers
03/11/2015ROFIN-SINAR, Inc. introduces the SmartCleave FI laser process and the MPS glass handling system for high speed and precise cl...