The release today of the SEMI World Fab Forecast update reveals a 20 to 30 percent projected increase in semiconductor fab equipment spending in 2014. The uptick to 30 percent depends on specific fab projects in the Europe/Mideast and Asia regions, as detailed in the report. Figure 1 shows Total Fab Equipment Spending versus Installed Capacity without Discretes. For 2014, the report identified over 190 fab projects in 2014 spending on construction and/or equipment and over such 250 projects in 2015 (including Discretes, LED, Analog and Logic fabs).
According to the SEMI data, double-digit fab equipment spending growth will occur in almost all industry segments. The segment showing the largest increase is expected to be MPU, followed by Memory. Analog, Logic and MEMS will share third place with about 30 percent growth each — off of a small spending base in 2013. The Foundry segment spending is expected to grow by 15 percent.
The SEMI World Fab Forecast report shows an increase in DRAM related projects equipping, thus an increase in DRAM related equipment spending from about 7 percent growth in 2013 to 30 percent in 2014. Overall DRAM installed capacity is expected to remain flat (0 percent) in 2014, following a contraction in 2013.
Equipment spending is also expected to stabilize for both the Opto and the LED fab segments, from -16 percent spending declines in 2013 to -1 percent in 2014. Equipment spending in the LED segment will decline -9 percent in 2014 following the -21 percent decline in 2013. Construction spending for all Opto/LED facilities will increase by over 60 percent in 2014. These investments will increase installed capacity for LED by 12 percent in 2014 and about 14 percent in 2015.
Using a bottom up approach, SEMI closely monitors the installed capacity of more 1,100 facilities. Across the entire industry, installed capacity (without Discretes) grew by only 2 percent in 2013; this is expected to creep up to 3 percent growth in 2014 and in the 3-5 percent range in 2015.
The SEMI World Fab Forecast tracks over 190 fab projects in 2014 that are spending for construction projects and equipping facilities and over 250 such projects in 2015, including Discretes, LED, Analog and Logic fabs. The report details that in 2013 seven new fabs and four R&D/Pilots facilities began construction. In 2014, six new fabs and one R&D fab are forecasted (with various probabilities) to begin construction. Robust growth presents itself differently across segments of the industry; learn more about SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/MarketInfo/FabDatabase
The SEMI World Fab Forecast lists over 1,160 facilities. There are 56 future facilities with various probabilities which have started or will start volume production in 2014 or later. The report lists major investments (construction projects and equipping) in 196 facilities and lines in 2014, and a large number in 2015. Since the last fab database publication at the end November 2013, the SEMI has made 282 updates to 253 facilities (including over 250 Opto/LED fabs) in the database. There were 17 facilities added and 10 facilities closed.
The SEMI World Fab Forecast uses a bottom-up approach methodology, providing high-level summaries and graphs, and in-depth analyses of capital expenditures, capacities, technology and products by fab. Additionally, the database provides forecasts for the next 18 months by quarter. These tools are invaluable for understanding how the semiconductor manufacturing will look in 2013 and 2014, and learning more about capex for construction projects, fab equipping, technology levels, and products.