At the recent ASE Tech Forum in Nijmegen chaired by John Marc Yannou, Ivanovik of Yole gave a nice overview of the industry presentation entitled “Advanced Packaging Industry 2017”
In general they report:
- Growth decline in the main semiconductor driver (smartphones)
- Stagnating mature markets (PC, tablets)
- Cost benefits of CMOS scaling have ceased (see figure below). Long time readers of IFTLE have been aware of this trend sine 2011 when we reported Handle Jones of IBS observed the trend at the annual Semi ISS conference [see IFTLE 40 “Samsung 3D IC Wide I/O DRAM and Semiconductor Predictions for 2011”]
In the future they predict no single leading driver, but rather a fragmented growing market including autonomous vehicles, vehicle “electrification”, robotics, AI and that general term that IFTLE hates, IoT.
In general packaging has gone from:
- Bridging the gap between semiconductor and PCB level, serving as IC protection and providing a form factor for testability
- Shifting system integration from the die to the package level!
- Packaging serving as the “IC shell” to becoming the performance and functionality enhancer!
They offered the following as their assessment of 2016 advanced packaging wafer split by manufacturer.
Total 2016 OSAT revenue is $27.9B vs IDM revenue of $26.8B
They offer the following as 2016 top 25 OSAT revenue. Taiwan now has 55% of production and China is in second place with 18% followed by the US with 17%.
Advantage will go to packaging houses which are able to either:
- Maintain a large portfolio of package architectures and technologies for customers
- Lead in specialty processes and packaging (i.e. MEMS, LED, image sensor packaging)
Revenue will continue to be driven by FC over the next 5 years while units will be drive by QFN and fan in WLP.
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