Total wafer demand is expected to return to historical growth rates over the next five years. However, what is uncharacteristic of the past is the wide range of decline and growth that will be logged by specific product categories and technologies. Semico’s recent report Semico Wafer Demand Model Update Q3 2016 indicates that the compound annual growth rates by detailed product breakouts range from a -4.1% decrease all the way up to 11.3% growth, exemplifying the diverse applications within the semiconductor industry.
“The products experiencing growth or decline have a significant impact on the need for certain types of production capacity such as 200mm versus 300mm; logic, memory or other; and advanced versus mature process technology”, says Joanne Itow, Managing Director Manufacturing for Semico. “The process technologies covered in wafer demand model ranges from >1000nm down to 7nm.”
Key findings include:
* Semiconductor revenues are expected to fall 2.5% in 2016
* Total wafer demand in 2016 is expected to exceed 100 million 300mm wafer equivalents
* The main reason for the increase in wafer demand in 2016 is due to continued increases in Other MOS Logic (Automotive, Consumer, Audio, etc.), NAND, DRAM, Discretes/Sensors and Optoelectronics
* DRAM chip revenue is expected to decline 14.7% in 2016
Semico Research’s report, Semico Wafer Demand Model Update Q3 2016, study number MA112-16 , includes an excel spreadsheet which provides wafer demand by 18 product categories and 14 technology nodes over a 10 year time frame from 2010 to 2020. There is also a summary write-up which provides insight into the recent changes compared to the previous quarter.
Other data contained in the report:
* Wafer demand by product (discrete/sensor, Opto, Analog, Communications, MCU, MPU, DRAM, NAND, NOR, SRAM, etc.) by process node (≥1000nm-7nm)
* Silicon wafer shipments from 2010-2020